Parquet Wishes and Leprechaun Dreams

Friday, December 7, 2007

43.4

John Hollinger has a new toy up on ESPN.Com, the 2007-08 NBA Playoff Predictor (sports.espn.go.com) ...
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.

Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
For those of you curious, the Celtics currently are projected to finish with a 64-18 record, with a 100-percent chance of making the postseason ... In projecting those odds - through 5000 simulations - the worst record that the predictor came up with for the C's was 52-30 (I'd still take that), while the best was a whopping 75-7 (Record Alert: The current chances of Boston posting a 72-10 record or better are 1.0250000000000001%).

Going further, we have a 100-percent chance of finishing first in our division, a 54.7-percent chance of making the Finals (hey, better than half!) and 43.4-percent chance of winning it all and taking home the Larry O'Brien trophy.

However, before you get too excited about those results, just be aware that the predictor gives the San Antonio Spurs a mere 10.3-percent chance of winning the championships ... Now, any tabulation that gives Tim Duncan that little of a chance to take home the gold has gotta be flawed somehow.

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